Snow Sat and Sun, and Storm Door Opening Next Week
Posted: Tue Nov 05, 2013 6:05 pm
So the season ends.
NWS:
SATURDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WE CONTINUE TO SEE STRONG INDICATIONS THAT
THE LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL ADJUST ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC AND
OVERALL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WEST
COAST. GFS...CMC...AND EC ENSEMBLE DATA ALL SUPPORT AN EXTREMELY
STRONG RIDGE TO DEVELOP CENTERED NEAR THE WESTERN END OF THE
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. THIS IS A PATTERN CLOSELY ALIGNED WITH THE POSITIVE
PHASE OF THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION WHICH HAS MODERATE CORRELATION
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION FOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE CURRENT SIGNAL IN THE ENSEMBLE DATA IN FACT
IS SO STRONG THAT FORECAST H5 HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED TO BE AT EXTREME
POSITIVE LEVELS OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER.
AND THIS IS BASED ON THE ENSEMBLE MEANS...NOT ANY INDIVIDUAL MEMBER.
IT IS NOT JUST THE ENSEMBLE DATA THAT SUPPORT THIS EITHER...A TIME
-LAGGED ENSEMBLE OF THE DETERMINISTIC GFS ALSO REVEALS THAT IT IS
FORECASTING THE STRONG NORTH PACIFIC RIDGE.
THE WET PATTERN WILL LIKELY REMAIN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
ENSEMBLE DATA POINT TO THE NORTHERN PACIFIC RIDGE HOLDING THROUGH
THE CURRENT 10 TO 15 DAY FORECAST PERIOD. LOOKING AT DATA FROM THE
CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM...THE RIDGE COULD HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF
NOVEMBER...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD SUPPORTIVE OF
STORM SYSTEMS CROSSING OUR AREA. THIS IS BY NO MEANS A PREDICTION
FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...RATHER THE DAYS OF HIGH-AND-DRY OR
DEATH-BY-RIDGE LOOK TO BE OVER.