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Snow Sat and Sun, and Storm Door Opening Next Week

Discussion related to Sierra Nevada current and forecast conditions, as well as general precautions and safety information. Trail conditions, fire/smoke reports, mosquito reports, weather and snow conditions, stream crossing information, and more.
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Snow Sat and Sun, and Storm Door Opening Next Week

Postby maverick » Tue Nov 05, 2013 6:05 pm

So the season ends.

NWS:

SATURDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WE CONTINUE TO SEE STRONG INDICATIONS THAT
THE LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL ADJUST ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC AND
OVERALL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WEST
COAST. GFS...CMC...AND EC ENSEMBLE DATA ALL SUPPORT AN EXTREMELY
STRONG RIDGE TO DEVELOP CENTERED NEAR THE WESTERN END OF THE
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. THIS IS A PATTERN CLOSELY ALIGNED WITH THE POSITIVE
PHASE OF THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION WHICH HAS MODERATE CORRELATION
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION FOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE CURRENT SIGNAL IN THE ENSEMBLE DATA IN FACT
IS SO STRONG THAT FORECAST H5 HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED TO BE AT EXTREME
POSITIVE LEVELS OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER.
AND THIS IS BASED ON THE ENSEMBLE MEANS...NOT ANY INDIVIDUAL MEMBER.
IT IS NOT JUST THE ENSEMBLE DATA THAT SUPPORT THIS EITHER...A TIME
-LAGGED ENSEMBLE OF THE DETERMINISTIC GFS ALSO REVEALS THAT IT IS
FORECASTING THE STRONG NORTH PACIFIC RIDGE.


THE WET PATTERN WILL LIKELY REMAIN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
ENSEMBLE DATA POINT TO THE NORTHERN PACIFIC RIDGE HOLDING THROUGH
THE CURRENT 10 TO 15 DAY FORECAST PERIOD. LOOKING AT DATA FROM THE
CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM...THE RIDGE COULD HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF
NOVEMBER...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD SUPPORTIVE OF
STORM SYSTEMS CROSSING OUR AREA. THIS IS BY NO MEANS A PREDICTION
FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...RATHER THE DAYS OF HIGH-AND-DRY OR
DEATH-BY-RIDGE LOOK TO BE OVER.
HST= Wilderness Adventurer who knows no bounds, except for their own imagination.

Have a safer backcountry experience by using the HST ReConn Form 2.0, named after Larry Conn, a HST member: http://reconn.org



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maverick
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Re: Snow Sat and Sun, and Storm Door Opening Next Week

Postby sparky » Tue Nov 05, 2013 7:33 pm

Darn, I was just starting to plan a trip to yosemite this weekend
There is a million ways to be human, all are worthwhile.

True happiness is the absence of striving for happiness.
-Chuang Tzu.
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Re: Snow Sat and Sun, and Storm Door Opening Next Week

Postby zorobabel » Fri Nov 08, 2013 1:31 pm

The forecast suggests above average temperatures for this weekend and no precipitation...
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Re: Snow Sat and Sun, and Storm Door Opening Next Week

Postby maverick » Fri Nov 08, 2013 1:38 pm

Yes, the system fell apart. This is what makes this time of the year so dangerous.
There will be many system that do not materialize into anything significant and
lull people into not trusting the forecast, but unfortunately sometimes the opposite
occurs which is when people get into trouble.
HST= Wilderness Adventurer who knows no bounds, except for their own imagination.

Have a safer backcountry experience by using the HST ReConn Form 2.0, named after Larry Conn, a HST member: http://reconn.org
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Re: Snow Sat and Sun, and Storm Door Opening Next Week

Postby zorobabel » Fri Nov 08, 2013 1:52 pm

I got snowed on when I shouln't have been on 2 trips this autumn, so I'll take the forecast with a grain of salt.
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