Tioga Road officially closed (finally) 2015

[rlown]

I was kind of getting ticked off that Yose didn't update the closure page for Tioga:

http://www.nps.gov/yose/planyourvisit/tiogaopen.htm

So I sent them a gentle email and they updated the page, as it's been "temporarily" closed for a few weeks in their alerts section.
Closed date was set at Nov 1st.

I miss the camera up at the Tioga entry station, but I watch this page to see how the storms progress (esp, snow depth):
http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/queryF?TES

[maverick]

I miss the camera up at the Tioga entry station

Me too.

[MichaelRPetrick]

I want to do Lyell as a 3-day 2 night trip, as early in the season as is feasible. A few questions about relevant roads:

-Does TM ever open before Tioga, via Western access, e.g. they can't plow near Lee Vining due to rockslides?

-IIRC, the last place plowed on 120 inside the park is usually around Olmstead Pt. If so, is TM ever accessible from Lee Vining before it's accessible from the West?

Thanks!

Michael

[rlown]

The funny part. Outside the park from the East is generally plowed first right to the pass because that is CalTrans, unless massive slides occurred. Gates through the park are still locked.

The park doesn't open 120 through the park until they clear 120 and all the side roads.

Best to wait and watch and know that they start plowing on April 15th and then depending on snow load, it'll open.. sometime..

We need the snow. Dana Meadows has 80" of snow as of now and 20 of WC.. very nice. http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/queryF?DAN

[MichaelRPetrick]

That certainly makes sense from an organizational sense for the NPS. Better to have everything ready to go rather at once rather than try to open up TM before both sides of the road are open.

I have a rough model that forecasts the opening date given snowpack on April 1st. The model is only calibrated down to about a three-weekend timespan, so I guess I'll need to look for partners who can take Fridays off on short notice.

Thanks rlown!

[markskor]

I have a rough model that forecasts the opening date given snow-pack on April 1st.

This year, thinking probably late May?

[MichaelRPetrick]

This year, thinking probably late May?

Yup. Assuming we're at 100% of normal on 4-1, I've got it at May 26th +/- 8 days. Model doesn't really say much until the end of March - and who knows what March will bring?

I could share it as a Google Spreadsheet if anyone is interested. It's a blend of:

(A) linear regression: opening date = X * [4-1 snowpack] + constant
(B) Nearest neighbor regressoion: takes the average of all 4-1 snowpack figures within +/- 20% of the year you're forecasting for

Really, it's probably no better than totally spitballing it - provided you're familiar with the Sierra - but who doesn't love a little pointless precision now and then? My main goal was to know which weekend would likely be a good bet to grab Thursday or Friday permits for, and to know this BEFORE the NPS announces the opening date. I hope the model should get it done in that respect.

If anyone knows of a good historical set of the forward-looking precip forecasts, I could probably make it more usefully precise.

[rlown]

the historical data of Tioga openings are at http://www.nps.gov/yose/planyourvisit/tiogaopen.htm

remember they don't start plowing until tax day.

[MichaelRPetrick]

the historical data of Tioga openings are at http://www.nps.gov/yose/planyourvisit/tiogaopen.htm

remember they don't start plowing until tax day.

Yup, that's the only data I used for the model parameters.

[Cross Country]

Circa 1967 we were at Tioga Road on July 4 and almost the entire road was closed and the snow at the end of the open part (west) was about 6 feet deep.