MAJOR SNOWSTORM-4FT OF SNOW FOR SIERRA NEXT WEEKEND 3/17 | High Sierra Topix  

MAJOR SNOWSTORM-4FT OF SNOW FOR SIERRA NEXT WEEKEND 3/17

If you've been searching for the best source of information and stimulating discussion related to Spring/Summer/Fall backpacking, hiking and camping in the Sierra Nevada...look no further!
User avatar

MAJOR SNOWSTORM-4FT OF SNOW FOR SIERRA NEXT WEEKEND 3/17

Postby DAVELA » Sat Mar 10, 2012 12:28 pm

This prediction according to dallas raines on kabc7 last night.I hope he's right!



User avatar
DAVELA
Topix Regular
 
Posts: 190
Joined: Mon Dec 07, 2009 12:23 am
Location: los angeles
Experience: N/A

User avatar

Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM-4FT OF SNOW FOR SIERRA NEXT WEEKEND 3/17

Postby SSSdave » Sun Mar 11, 2012 8:32 am

Have already been watching this situation with the storm door opening for days on this other thread:

viewtopic.php?f=1&t=7456&start=12

Difference now is local TV weather forecasters have belatedly taken notice. And it isn't FOR next weekend but rather BY next weekend. A week ago the western Pacific atmosphere over Japan and Phillipines had 200% to 300% of normal water vapor and was expected to move east.
User avatar
SSSdave
Topix Fanatic
 
Posts: 1965
Joined: Thu Nov 17, 2005 11:18 pm
Location: Silicon Valley
Experience: N/A

User avatar

Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM-4FT OF SNOW FOR SIERRA NEXT WEEKEND 3/17

Postby jessegooddog » Sun Mar 11, 2012 6:26 pm

mammothweather.com is updated nearly every day and is great for long range planning. And yes, this one looks favorable so far. We will take anything at this point - in the 70s in Bishop all week, much to warm. eastersierraforecast.com is also updated daily and includes the Owens Valley weather.
User avatar
jessegooddog
Topix Regular
 
Posts: 240
Joined: Wed Jun 16, 2010 3:39 pm
Experience: N/A

User avatar

Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM-4FT OF SNOW FOR SIERRA NEXT WEEKEND 3/17

Postby DAVELA » Sun Mar 11, 2012 6:42 pm

I dont understand any of the lingo except for the last paragraph :D
From the mammoth lakes weather website:

"Here is the latest info….

The Dweebs have looked at all medium and long range guidance including the most recent 12z operational ECMWF which has at 500mb…a 240DM drop in heights Just South of Monterrey Bay between 12z Friday and 12z Sat. Then another 120DM drop over the following 24 hours…… That’s some serious height falls!! Thicknesses in the cold pool have to be in the 518s Can’t wait to see HP 500 temps in the upper low!! Snorkels anyone? or at least keep your CPAP high and working, if you plan on snow camping Saturday!

Now until we get to the weekend, we have some pretty wet unsettled weather to get through. A series of impulses will move through the pacific northwest and Northern California. The upper flow will become WSW natural to the sierra and so excellent orographics will be in play even though the upper jet dynamics remain well to our north. 700mb RH will vary between 50% and 90%. Monday through Wednesday. Tuesday and Wednesday seem the wettest for the first half of the week. CRFC puts a little over a half inch of QPF in Yosemite Valley between Tuesday AM and Wednesday AM. The same forecast time frame has the freezing Level at 7800 feet over Mammoth. Not too sure what to think about that though. (Seems low?) if not then several inches could fall at the Village Wednesday AM.

This mornings 12z GEM model actually has some UVM Wednesday morning for Mono County as a Vort center swings through…. Although the Town of Mammoth may not get into any serious snow until Friday…the upper mountain with good orographics and lots of HR at 700mb may get a foot+ Tuesday into Wednesday with the winds natural to the Sierra.

Then the excitement begins….Friday as the upper long wave reloads with two powerhouse short waves that move into Central Ca then south to the Mexican boarder to give LA a wallop as well. The Weekend storm could drop 3 to 4 feet of Light fluffy powder……IE “Platinum Powder”"
User avatar
DAVELA
Topix Regular
 
Posts: 190
Joined: Mon Dec 07, 2009 12:23 am
Location: los angeles
Experience: N/A

User avatar

Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM-4FT OF SNOW FOR SIERRA NEXT WEEKEND 3/17

Postby SSSdave » Sun Mar 11, 2012 7:58 pm

Reads more like storms by next weekend have the potential to possibly deliver something big in southern areas and not that such totals are his prediction. Of course trying to predict precipitation amounts a week away is not something forcasters do. He is merely relating the big cold trough that was noted two days ago near the end of this first series of warmer storms is coming behind them and usual big totals are possible are possible for that magnitude of storm. By Wednesday that is likely to firm up with numbers.
User avatar
SSSdave
Topix Fanatic
 
Posts: 1965
Joined: Thu Nov 17, 2005 11:18 pm
Location: Silicon Valley
Experience: N/A

User avatar

Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM-4FT OF SNOW FOR SIERRA NEXT WEEKEND 3/17

Postby hikerchick395 » Mon Mar 12, 2012 10:09 am

Hmmm...Howard didn't mention anything with much excitement on the radio this morning...

Typically, we should expect inclement weather for, at least, Saturday. Blake Jones Trout Derby on the 17th. But it could still be the 4 feet of wind, as the saying goes around here, instead of precip.


We could really use some rain/snow though!
User avatar
hikerchick395
Topix Regular
 
Posts: 146
Joined: Fri Sep 11, 2009 4:41 pm
Location: Round Valley, Bishop
Experience: N/A

User avatar

Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM-4FT OF SNOW FOR SIERRA NEXT WEEKEND 3/17

Postby Wild Bill » Tue Mar 13, 2012 6:09 pm

I, too, am hoping the snow accumulates. I'm looking out my window and seeing Mt. Morgan (13,005') beginning to become socked in. There were flurries in Mammoth....But.......
I have heard Howard predict "The Mother of all Storms" for years. And they didn't happen.
Don't get me wrong! We really need some snow up here!
It worries me to see how little snow I see on the Sierra presently. The NOAA website is calling for minimal snow this week. I will keep hoping the "storm door" opens big time.
Thanks DAVELA for posting Howard's forecast. Now that's funny!
User avatar
Wild Bill
Topix Acquainted
 
Posts: 52
Joined: Tue Jun 10, 2008 11:27 am
Location: Crowley Lake, Ca.
Experience: N/A

User avatar

Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM-4FT OF SNOW FOR SIERRA NEXT WEEKEND 3/17

Postby DAVELA » Tue Mar 13, 2012 10:40 pm

Yeah,NOAA is showing for Aspendell, snow accumalations of nil to one inch only per day over the next week :crybaby:
Well,thats the kind of year its been and ive accepted.Hopefully a miracle will arrive though. :thumbsup:
User avatar
DAVELA
Topix Regular
 
Posts: 190
Joined: Mon Dec 07, 2009 12:23 am
Location: los angeles
Experience: N/A

User avatar

Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM-4FT OF SNOW FOR SIERRA NEXT WEEKEND 3/17

Postby SSSdave » Wed Mar 14, 2012 1:03 pm

Thus far the NWS forecast has played out well with the main rain front stalled over the north SF Bay northeast to the Northern Sierra. Large area there with over 6 inches of rain. Soon will be hearing of flooding.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 11&loop=no

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 11&loop=no

Hanford NWS is still predicting 2" to 3" of precip in the Southern Sierra by late in the weekend so I would expect the eastside will do well by time this is over.

More interesting to this person is that by Saturday morning the cold core is supposed to move in with snow levels possibly down below 2000 feet. Usually to get snow that sticks on Yosemite Valley cliffs, the snow level needs to be low like that because the massive monolithic rock is a reservoir of considerable heat that tends to melt snow quickly on ledges and cracks even though the air temperature may show 30F or so. That also shows up with YV temps having difficulty dropping below about 30F while nearby similar elevation temps are several degrees cooler. To ski outrageous fresh blower or photo that will be the question.
User avatar
SSSdave
Topix Fanatic
 
Posts: 1965
Joined: Thu Nov 17, 2005 11:18 pm
Location: Silicon Valley
Experience: N/A

User avatar

Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM-4FT OF SNOW FOR SIERRA NEXT WEEKEND 3/17

Postby paul » Wed Mar 14, 2012 4:12 pm

Been checking the sensors - North of Tahoe= dumping. 4" of water content ( or about 2 feet plus of snow)in last 36 hours at Meadow lake just northeast of Donner summit. about 3" WC near Loon lake in same period. further south, not so much -just a few inches of snow at Gianelli meadow and Lower Relief Valley near Sonora Pass, and again just a dusting at Bishop Pass.
User avatar
paul
Topix Expert
 
Posts: 442
Joined: Thu Mar 15, 2007 3:35 pm
Experience: N/A

User avatar

Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM-4FT OF SNOW FOR SIERRA NEXT WEEKEND 3/17

Postby Troutdog 59 » Thu Mar 15, 2012 8:07 am

Storms have tracked north of here (Clovis?Fresno) and by the looks of web cams and snow reports, its more rain than snow so far at least at the ski areas :( . Reports locally are for temps to drop as a another storm tracks through over the weekend. So far I think the 4" at Meadow Lakes must be rain, as the Sugar Bowl cam shows a dusting of new snow overnight, and its pretty close to the Meadow Lakes station I beleive (could be wrong about that), but much less than 2'. I 80 cams show just a dusting as well. While I would love to get out early on some pack trips, we (the State) need more snow pack.
If you stand in the light, you get the feel of the night, and the music that plays in your ear......
In your mind you can hear, a voice so sweet and clear, and the music that plays in your head......
As it flows up from the ground, taking all that hear the sound, close your eyes, it’s about to begin.

R. Trower
User avatar
Troutdog 59
Topix Expert
 
Posts: 549
Joined: Thu Dec 23, 2010 12:11 pm
Location: Clovis
Experience: N/A

User avatar

Re: MAJOR SNOWSTORM-4FT OF SNOW FOR SIERRA NEXT WEEKEND 3/17

Postby SSSdave » Thu Mar 15, 2012 10:41 pm

This Thursday evening's NWS forecasts have already begun to back off of the optimistic dump from earlier this week. For the first time read the usual term SPLIT that often is involved when their models don't pan out. Note the way the last three days has played out here in the SF Bay Area is rather different from what was predicted last Sunday or Monday. They did get it right that it would stall over the North SF Bay but much of the timing has been off. On Monday's forecast, todays rain was possibly going to be heavy and it just piddled having come and gone yesterday. Here in the San Jose we have picked up just 0.07 inch this week while just a few miles due west in Ben Lomand in the Santa Cruz Mountains, orographic flows have dropped over 12 inches of precipitation and there has been minor flooding downstream. Lets hope the cold core pool coming down develops a surprise secondary front as it moves south as sometimes happens.

...IT IS INTERESTING
TO NOTE THAT THE 00Z NAM SHOWS A DOWNWARD TREND IN PROJECTED RAIN
TOTALS WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE 00Z NAM IS FORECASTING ONLY HALF AS
MUCH PRECIP AS THE 18Z GFS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SPLIT AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN CA
COAST ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SPLIT
SHEARING OFF INTO THE PAC NW AND THE SOUTHERN PART DIGGING SE
TOWARDS SOUTHERN CA. THERE IS REASON TO BELIEVE THAT THE SPLITTING
NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM MAY RESULT IN LESS PRECIP THAN THE MODELS
ARE FORECASTING.
User avatar
SSSdave
Topix Fanatic
 
Posts: 1965
Joined: Thu Nov 17, 2005 11:18 pm
Location: Silicon Valley
Experience: N/A

Next

Return to Backpacking / Hiking / Camping



Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Bing [Bot], RobS, SNOOOOW, starankle hiker, Yahoo [Bot] and 7 guests