High Sierra Topix

No negative waves here, will be happy to take a drought year this time around.

Last few days the NWS long range has been firming up a long range storm door opening and this evening now it is looking more than a maybe:

ANOTHER LONG-WAVE TROF WILL BE POSITIONED OFF THE COAST FOR TUESDAY
AND WILL BRING A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN TO OUR AREA. MODELS
HAVE BEEN HIGHLIGHTING THIS FOR MULTIPLE DAYS NOW AND WITH A SMALL
ENSEMBLE SPREAD DECIDED TO TO PUSH SOME POPS TO THE LIKELY LEVEL.
BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS INDICATE ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL
WITH A HIGH CONFIDENCE LEVEL.

I've skied a day up at Kirkwood 5 of the last 6 weekends and can state that even after last week's storm the roadside depths driving up SR88 are so shallow most all outside totally shady areas could melt out in May. Sun is rising to higher altitudes and days are lengthening faster now than it will at any time of the year as we near the equinox. Friday evening as I drove up it was below freezing at 7k. Then Saturday morning didn't break freezing until maybe 9am. But then really warmed up fast and was over 50F degrees by midday making for a wet mushy snow surface on any slopes in direct rays and generally melting surfaces even in shady areas. Good thing there is going to be a few inches added tonight with a couple cool days.

If next weeks weather pans out, maybe I'll hit the jackpot as I've scheduled a day of PTO that Friday and am hoping for fresh dry fluff. One indication of warm winter days and how spring may come early is I just saw a report that some swaths of poppies are showing in the Merced River Canyon that is about two weeks early.

maverick wrote:No negative waves here, will be happy to take a drought year this time around.

Me too!

(Okay, the wildflowers won't be much...but that's not a bad tradeoff for early season backpacking.)

I would trade some early season backpacking for a bit more snow. I recall previous dry years when forest fires spoiled all the views in the Sierra. After two bumper years for undergrowth, if this summer is super-dry, we may be set up for a horrible fire season.

Snowshoeing Donner Pass last Sunday

Looking grim. Come on snow!

Wouldn't that be great. Fight my way cross country to remote areas only to be blinded by smoke from forest fires!

I'm not counting any chickens yet. many things could happen. If we got normal snow from here out and a cooler than normal April and May, June might not be too far from normal. So we'll see what happens is my way of looking at it. However, I have a week-long ski trip planned into the Emigrant Wilderness at the end of April, and if the snow is too thin it will be a hiking trip, so either way I'll be able to report on the conditions when I get back from that.

The latest speculative nugget from Reno NWS:

AS A SPECULATIVE SIDE NOTE FOR WELL BEYOND THE 7-DAY FORECAST, SOME
MODELS START TO WORK A DEEPER, MORE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FEED INTO
THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BY LATE NEXT WEEK AND
BEYOND. THIS MAKES SENSE ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MJO
FORECAST WHICH WORKS SUBTROPICAL/TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE WESTERN
PACIFIC FLOW OUT AROUND TWO WEEKS FROM NOW. THIS COULD EVENTUALLY
BRING HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIR TO OUR REGION IF THE ZONAL PACIFIC
FLOW CAN CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE WEEKS. REMEMBER, THIS IS ALL
HIGHLY SPECULATIVE AT THIS TIME BUT INTERESTING ENOUGH TO MENTION.
SNYDER

One of the free PBS station programs I sometimes catch is NHK World TV that spotlights Japan and Asia. They also include a global weather segment that focuses more on the western Pacific. Recently noticed quite a lot of storminess there and that is likely what they are watching develop. Yep we need a big Pineapple Express event but I'll even be happy with just a half sized event.

Brace Yourselve !!!! March 19, 2012 ...It Will RAIN & SNOW !!!!