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Amazing Difference in Snow Pack

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Re: Amazing Difference in Snow Pack

Postby maverick » Mon Mar 05, 2012 8:33 pm

No negative waves here, will be happy to take a drought year this time around. :D
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Re: Amazing Difference in Snow Pack

Postby SSSdave » Mon Mar 05, 2012 11:09 pm

Last few days the NWS long range has been firming up a long range storm door opening and this evening now it is looking more than a maybe:

ANOTHER LONG-WAVE TROF WILL BE POSITIONED OFF THE COAST FOR TUESDAY
AND WILL BRING A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN TO OUR AREA. MODELS
HAVE BEEN HIGHLIGHTING THIS FOR MULTIPLE DAYS NOW AND WITH A SMALL
ENSEMBLE SPREAD DECIDED TO TO PUSH SOME POPS TO THE LIKELY LEVEL.
BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS INDICATE ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL
WITH A HIGH CONFIDENCE LEVEL.

I've skied a day up at Kirkwood 5 of the last 6 weekends and can state that even after last week's storm the roadside depths driving up SR88 are so shallow most all outside totally shady areas could melt out in May. Sun is rising to higher altitudes and days are lengthening faster now than it will at any time of the year as we near the equinox. Friday evening as I drove up it was below freezing at 7k. Then Saturday morning didn't break freezing until maybe 9am. But then really warmed up fast and was over 50F degrees by midday making for a wet mushy snow surface on any slopes in direct rays and generally melting surfaces even in shady areas. Good thing there is going to be a few inches added tonight with a couple cool days.

If next weeks weather pans out, maybe I'll hit the jackpot as I've scheduled a day of PTO that Friday and am hoping for fresh dry fluff. One indication of warm winter days and how spring may come early is I just saw a report that some swaths of poppies are showing in the Merced River Canyon that is about two weeks early.
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Re: Amazing Difference in Snow Pack

Postby TehipiteTom » Tue Mar 06, 2012 9:28 am

maverick wrote:No negative waves here, will be happy to take a drought year this time around. :D

Me too!

(Okay, the wildflowers won't be much...but that's not a bad tradeoff for early season backpacking.)
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Re: Amazing Difference in Snow Pack

Postby Wandering Daisy » Tue Mar 06, 2012 9:35 am

I would trade some early season backpacking for a bit more snow. I recall previous dry years when forest fires spoiled all the views in the Sierra. After two bumper years for undergrowth, if this summer is super-dry, we may be set up for a horrible fire season.
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Amazing Difference in Snow Pack

Postby ScoobyMike » Tue Mar 06, 2012 1:49 pm

Snowshoeing Donner Pass last Sunday
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Re: Amazing Difference in Snow Pack

Postby mattherrington » Tue Mar 06, 2012 3:42 pm

Looking grim. Come on snow!
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Re: Amazing Difference in Snow Pack

Postby RoguePhotonic » Tue Mar 06, 2012 8:17 pm

Wouldn't that be great. Fight my way cross country to remote areas only to be blinded by smoke from forest fires! :\
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Re: Amazing Difference in Snow Pack

Postby paul » Tue Mar 06, 2012 11:18 pm

I'm not counting any chickens yet. many things could happen. If we got normal snow from here out and a cooler than normal April and May, June might not be too far from normal. So we'll see what happens is my way of looking at it. However, I have a week-long ski trip planned into the Emigrant Wilderness at the end of April, and if the snow is too thin it will be a hiking trip, so either way I'll be able to report on the conditions when I get back from that.
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Re: Amazing Difference in Snow Pack

Postby SSSdave » Wed Mar 07, 2012 4:27 pm

The latest speculative nugget from Reno NWS:

AS A SPECULATIVE SIDE NOTE FOR WELL BEYOND THE 7-DAY FORECAST, SOME
MODELS START TO WORK A DEEPER, MORE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FEED INTO
THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BY LATE NEXT WEEK AND
BEYOND. THIS MAKES SENSE ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MJO
FORECAST WHICH WORKS SUBTROPICAL/TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE WESTERN
PACIFIC FLOW OUT AROUND TWO WEEKS FROM NOW. THIS COULD EVENTUALLY
BRING HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIR TO OUR REGION IF THE ZONAL PACIFIC
FLOW CAN CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE WEEKS. REMEMBER, THIS IS ALL
HIGHLY SPECULATIVE AT THIS TIME BUT INTERESTING ENOUGH TO MENTION.
SNYDER

One of the free PBS station programs I sometimes catch is NHK World TV that spotlights Japan and Asia. They also include a global weather segment that focuses more on the western Pacific. Recently noticed quite a lot of storminess there and that is likely what they are watching develop. Yep we need a big Pineapple Express event but I'll even be happy with just a half sized event.
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Re: Amazing Difference in Snow Pack

Postby intrek38 » Wed Mar 07, 2012 5:42 pm

Brace Yourselve !!!! March 19, 2012 ...It Will RAIN & SNOW !!!!
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Re: Amazing Difference in Snow Pack

Postby Carne_DelMuerto » Thu Mar 08, 2012 2:32 pm

Went up to check out Bowman Lake Road (North of I-80, off Hwy. 20) this morning with my son. Road was blocked by a man-made snow berm about a quarter mile in, but if it wasn't there I think I could have driven another mile or two. Only about a foot on the ground—it looked and felt more like late April up there than early March. Forecast calls for another storm early next week, so we'll see what happens...
Wonder is rock and water and the life that lives in-between.
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Re: Amazing Difference in Snow Pack

Postby TehipiteTom » Thu Mar 29, 2012 8:36 am

Looks like it was a little more miraculous in the north than in the south. Today's SWEQ summary has 68% of normal-to-date in the northern region (Trinity/Sacramento through Feather/Truckee), 48% in the central region (Yuba/Tahoe through Merced/Walker), and 39% in the southern region (San Joaquin through Kern). I wouldn't bank on a Memorial Day trip in the Trinity Alps, but there should be a good deal of early-season availability in SeKi.
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