Yes 2019 is now a BIG winter

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SSSdave
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Re: Yes 2019 is now a BIG winter

Post by SSSdave » Thu May 09, 2019 11:12 pm

northwest_WV51019.jpg
EOSDIS Worldview May 10, 2019
Can you see:

The snowy Olympics?
huge Mount Ranier?
Crater Lake?
Marble Mountains?
Trinity Alps?
Mount Shasta?
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Wandering Daisy
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Re: Yes 2019 is now a BIG winter

Post by Wandering Daisy » Fri May 10, 2019 7:40 am

http://cdec.water.ca.gov/snowapp/swcchart.action

Add the 2010-11 and 2016-17 lines and you can see comparison of melt to similar total winter snow.

Big winter, but so far the melt rate is similar to 2017 rather than the delayed melt of 2011. Long term predictions are for a hotter than normal summer so impacts to August trips may be minimal. However, streams may run higher throughout the summer, generally good news.

Some PCT hikers are now flipping north and then going south. I think they will be in for a big surprise in the Marble Mountains and Trinity Alps.

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Re: Yes 2019 is now a BIG winter

Post by rightstar76 » Sat May 11, 2019 2:30 am

And there is less water content than in 2017, so by July, it may not matter that much. Depends on how warm it gets the rest of this spring. Also, storms next week could hasten the melting.

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Re: Yes 2019 is now a BIG winter

Post by kpeter » Sat May 11, 2019 10:11 am

It is fun to play with that chart. While it has been a big snow year the melt has so far been faster than normal. In most regions we are now down to the 2009-2010 levels for this date. 2009-2010 was more of an average year but with a slow melt.

I'm looking back at my trips from summer 2006, 2010, and 2017 as the best analogues so far--although we are a bit under all of them. At this point the snow is well under 1998, 2005, and 2011 levels.

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Re: Yes 2019 is now a BIG winter

Post by SSSdave » Sat May 11, 2019 1:09 pm

That chart does not take into account elevations. I would not be surprised if the amount of snow say above 10000 feet is near record levels.

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Re: Yes 2019 is now a BIG winter

Post by kpeter » Sat May 11, 2019 10:14 pm

SSSdave wrote:
Sat May 11, 2019 1:09 pm
That chart does not take into account elevations. I would not be surprised if the amount of snow say above 10000 feet is near record levels.
Ah, maybe so. Another consideration.

However, I'm mainly looking at June trips now in the 6500-8000 range. I would think for judging June trips that the analogue years I mentioned would be pretty good.

Lower Kibbie Ridge reached 0 inches on April 29 this year. In 2017 Lower Kibbie Ridge reached 0 inches on.......April 29!

In 2010 Lower Kibbie Ridge took until May 17 to melt out.

In 2006 Lower Kibbie Ridge took until May 9 to melt.

Lower Kibbie is at 6700.

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Re: Yes 2019 is now a BIG winter

Post by Wandering Daisy » Sun May 12, 2019 8:13 am

Imagery does not take into account the depth of snow. All you are seeing is the reflective surface, not much indication of when it will melt. The CDEC charts are good for relative comparison. The southern Sierra appeared to get a good share of the snow this year, which may be different than the past high-snow years. I also like the USFS snow maps.

https://www.fs.fed.us/r5/webmaps/SierraSnowDepth/

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Re: Yes 2019 is now a BIG winter

Post by paul » Sun May 12, 2019 4:22 pm

I like to look at individual survey stations as close as possible to where I am heading, The charts are covering very large areas, so they are averages, and one valley can be quite different from the next in any given year. also, this year my experience is that the gradient from no snow to lots is steep, elevation-wise. I went in from Wishon Dam on Monday the 29th. At the dam elevation (around 6600 ft.), basically just a few patches at first. Within 500 feet up, solid 2-3 feet everywhere. That has changed since, as the snowline has climbed, but you still go from nothing to solid coverage pretty darn quick. At 10k it looked like early April coverage, hardly any rocks showing except right on the ridges, but the surface looked like mid to late May - runnels and suncups forming already. Kind of an odd combination. Daytime temps were nice but not particularly warm; nights were mid-20's so a pretty good freeze each night. Forecast right now calls for snow showers later in the week.

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Re: Yes 2019 is now a BIG winter

Post by SSSdave » Sun May 12, 2019 4:47 pm

On the May 12 EOSDIS WorldView, parts of Kibbie Lake for the first time are visible as a dark spot where there had been white. The lake at 6516 feet is my favorite in the park for those under 7000 feet. Among those, often the best choice Memorial Day weekend though this spring even if the lake surface melts, the forest trail will have some snow and muddy sections. By late August at most mild H2O temps, has some of the highest vertical cliff jumps into deep water in the range.
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Re: Yes 2019 is now a BIG winter

Post by rightstar76 » Mon May 20, 2019 6:55 am

Uncharted territory here:
Today new daily rain records were set at Downtown Sac, Sac Exec and Stockton. Downtown has now seen the wettest May on record with 3.28" so far beating the old record of 3.25".
https://twitter.com/NWSSacramento/statu ... 7916090368

The previous record was 1889! Still a ways to go until the end of the month...

From NWS Reno forecast disscussion this morning:
The wet, cool weather pattern continues through the last half of the work week as a persistent trough remains over the Western States. A series of shortwave troughs will continue to reinforce the low pressure, keeping the cool and unstable conditions over the region through the Memorial Day Weekend and potentially through the rest of May.
And it's not limited to NorCal and the High Sierra. From NWS San Diego forecast discussion:
A giant low pressure trough over the western states has and will continue to dominate our weather pattern this entire coming week. Within that large trough will be shortwaves rotating and energizing the cool moist air mass to produce occasional showers.

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