Making Plans For Summer Far In Advance

[SSSdave]

My planning strategy continued to change over this last two decades due to increasing lack of permit availability. Over a decade plus ago would wait till late April early May to secure permit reservations because by mid April additional large winter storms are unlikely so then I can use my expertise to forecast what summer conditions will be like. Generally I have an excellent record over decades of predicting when optimal photographic aesthetic conditions will occur. I prefer peak greenery with wildflowers, still flowing ephemeral snowmelt streams, and snow still sprinkling across peaks. For recreation dot gov areas, one can view quota status while some other NFs not. Popular TH Saturday quotas usually fill first then Friday, Thursday, Sunday, Wednesday, Monday, Tuesday. Thus in March, I start occasionally looking at status and will wait until remaining permits have dwindled to the point waiting further is risky.

Understanding what conditions will be like by late April for a late July trip is complex and I use several online web sources to help make those assessments just as I do for earlier late winter and spring wildflower trips into our desert and coastal areas. Generally June thru mid July are likely to be smoke free while after that is increasingly not. For 10k elevations after average winters, late July is about optimal aesthetically and mosquitoes will have waned. For 9k mid July. For 6k to 8k late May thru June. Topography and sun exposure are also factors.

In any case, especially if solo thus flexible, I prefer to pull the trigger on trips at short notice in order to avoid unproductive photographic weather though am not as narrowly picky as maverick. On short trips one day's hike from THs with lake reflection targets, I tend to pay much attention to wind forecasts.

[JWreno]

There are 3 of us so it is riskier trying to pick up a walk-up permit on popular quota trailheads. 3 years ago we wanted to go out of Bishop so we reserved a permit early and conditions ended up being great. We did a full southbound JMT 4 years ago and snagged our permit reservations 24 weeks in advance. 5 years ago we drove in an started a hike without realizing we we down wind from an extreme fire and the smoke conditions where probably not healthy for a couple of days of the trip. We returned to an empty parking lot at the trailhead 4 days later. The lower portions of the car tires were permanently discolored from the smoke.

This year I may do an earlier trip out of Virginia Lakes and may just attempt it as a walk-up. The 2nd trip may be after Labor Day and be less of a problem. I probably will work another 5 years or so. I hope to stay healthy enough to continue to enjoy backpacking trips once I retire in my late 60s. I have managed to do about 35 trips in the last 25 years or so. 25 of them have been with multiple members of my family for which I am grateful.