High Sierra Topix

I'd like to do a 3 night trip starting from Bear Creek diversion to lake Italy, Thursday sept 25 thru Sunday 28th. I know the timing is right on the weather cusp and the weather seems to be cooling down, so I'm on the fence. So my question is this..... Given that the weather is on the cusp would you do this trip? I know there was another thread about going to lower elevation this time of year but that was with kids. I'm solo and experienced and safety is important to me! My other idea was going to the Kern Plateau out of Kennedy meadows.....but then I thought if it was too cold up at lake Italy I could always drop back down to bear creek and explore. I hope this thread is not too redundant. Thx so much!

If I were in California and had the ability to make a last minute go/no go decision and the national weather service gave me a three day buffer of good weather past my exit day I would go for it. Also their temperature spot forecasts are usually within 5 degrees for about 3 days beyond the date of the forecast. Any less of a buffer and I would not choose such a remote destination and TH. (But of course I'm an old fart and pretty conservative) Another thing to remember is that to the best of my memory snow has never fallen and stayed in the Sierra before October 15. So if snow were to fall in late September or early October and you are in the backcountry wait a couple and walk out after the snow melts. Be sure an take a good book as the nights are longer than the days.

Mike

I wish I could be out there this weekend. I'm waiting until next weekend to leave from north lake and go north on the shr. Weather Should be nice for a few more weeks. My new plb adds peace of mind

Yeah, based on what weather.gov is currently forecasting, I'd go, but bring whatever it takes to keep me warm if temps never rise above 30s and 40s. I'm sure you'll be doing daily checks of the forecast between now and then to see if storms become a factor. This guy will mention it if a notable storm becomes likely: http://mammothweather.com/howards-forecast/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Just watch the weather very carefully, carry cold weather gear, and turn around at the first sign of bad weather.

Charlie Hench's infamous trip to Italy Pass was Sept 17-22.
http://www.intrepid-optimist.com/content/lost-mountains" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

He would have been fine, though, had he stayed put at Lake Italy until after the storm abated, waited for the snow to melt, and then reversed course, just as Oldranger suggests. But he foolishly decided to try to make it over Italy Pass after the storm had started.

The Oldranger hits it right on. 3 days is the longest I would trust the forecast , and even then I would have my eyes wide open all the time and be ready to bail if something comes in. Getting up to Lake Italy from Bear creek there is only one tricky bit where the trail up the Hilgard Branch is heading southeast, then turns and goes due east through goes through a narrow spot in the canyon. Anywhere higher than right where the trail is pretty near impassable (below it you are in the creek). No problem at all in good visibility, but in a snowstorm you could get in serious trouble there. So if in doubt below that, don't go all the way up; if in doubt above that, stay put until the storm peters out.

For me I wouldn't like that trailhead in the fall because if there was a storm you could get stuck on the east side of Kaiser Pass for a while.

I don't have too much to add except that I do not expect a late Sept storm to be wet and cold enough to close Kaiser Pass (temporarily) so I think the "escape" once you reach the car is OK. As other have said, checking the weather right up until you go is key. If the report predicts anything remotely dicey as of the evening before your take off, I'd call the trip off. This is all 'west-facing' trip that won't put you on the other side of a high pass from descent to lower and warmer temps. You just have to make sure you don't wait too long to bail out if the conditions start to change.

As of NWS forecast (1315 PDT Sunday) the furthest they forecast is next Sat (9-27) when they forecast a big drop off in temps to a high of 41 at 11k elevation with gusty winds. If the updated forecast as of the day before your takeoff says wet as well as cold, I'd call the trip off.

Like many folks I have tended to do my trips to high and remote places only as late as the weekend after Labor Day weekend, after which I would aim for less remote places, so as to minimize the chances of getting stuck far in the backcountry during a change in weather. I have experienced some exceptionally cold snaps during September, although not with a huge amount of snow (coldest trip I experienced at this time of the year was in Little Lakes Valley (9/20-21/1986) when the highest afternoon temp was well below freezing).

As of NWS forecast (1315 PDT Sunday) the furthest they forecast is next Sat (9-27) when they forecast a big drop off in temps to a high of 41 at 11k elevation with gusty winds. If the updated forecast as of the day before your takeoff says wet as well as cold, I'd call the trip off.

Season is pretty done. don't risk it. the only caveat i'll raise here is if you know about winter camping and are carrying skis or snowshoes and expect something will hit, then, ok, maybe..

Yeah, things can change fast this time of year. Do you enjoy 20's, 30's, and 40's with gusty winds? On the plus side, major road issues are unlikely and calling the season over is a wager and personal preference more than a guarantee. Keep watching the weather and have a lower backup trip with good forecasts if possible.

I got back last night from a weekend trip over Kearsage Pass down to the 10,400 level on the west side of the Sierra. Temperatures were cool, and quite breezy, and we had a thunderstorm with lightning and rain start about 8pm, but it really was not that big of a deal. I don't consider it too late to be in the HIgh Sierra, assuming you are well equipped, and have an exit plan. The Kern Plateau hiking season lasts even longer, depending on the trailhead you hike out of. Kennedy Meadows(6000'approx.) can still be downright hot this time of year. Blackrock trailhead starts you out at about 9000', and is another option. For that matter, I think accessing GTW from Cottonwood Pass, Trail Pass, or Mulkey Pass are great viable options this time of year. I might see you this weekend as you are returning. I am thinking about hiking up Bear Creek myself this weekend, but only as far as the area where the diversion dam trail intersects the JMT, or somewhere thereabouts. Unfortunately, I will have to start hiking at the road, my Civic is too low to the ground to make it to the trailhead.